In the realm of science, few fields have sparked such intrigue, mystification and excitement with the public as quantum mechanics. From the famous thought experiment of Schrödinger’s cat, the concept of superposition whereby a cat is simultaneously alive and dead in the box until it is opened and observed. Or quantum entanglement, where particles become interconnected in such a way that the state of one particle instantly influences the state of another, regardless of the distance between them. By applying these quantum principles to computing, amongst others, we can envision an era where challenges previously deemed unsolvable in our lifetime using classical computing may be addressed.
Classical versus Quantum Computing
Today’s technology relies mainly on the principles of classical physics from the 17th to 19th century. Data is processed in a binary manner with bits having two states of 0 or 1. It is through the rapid changing of these bits that transistors execute commands. Text, music, images and movies can be described as a stream of numbers. However, in 1985, Daivd Deutsch, a theoretical physicist, proposed the concept of a universal quantum computer whereby it could simulate any physical process, making it exponentially more powerful than classical computers for certain tasks.
Using the principles of quantum mechanics, quantum bits (qubits) can have a state of 0, 1 or exist in multiple states simultaneously via superposition. This allows quantum computers to process vast amounts of information in parallel. Early developments laid the groundwork for practical implementations, although we still have several different modalities, each leveraging unique physical systems to realise qubits.
Players such as Google, IBM and Rigetti Computing use superconducting qubits while IonQ and Quantinuum use ion trap. Each offers its own advantages and challenges, with superconducting qubits having faster operation speeds while ion qubits have higher fidelity and longer coherence times. One similarity, however, remains – error rates. When scaling up, for quantum computers to be useful, the number of stable qubits is key. Current machines can only achieve a few hundred error-free quantum operations, but at a million plus error-free quantum operations, quantum computers could surpass the limitations of classical supercomputers, enabling more powerful applications across various sectors.
Applications and implications
The potential applications of quantum computing span a wide range of fields. In the domains of scientific research and healthcare, quantum computing has the capacity to simulate intricate molecular interactions, thereby expediting breakthroughs in drug discovery and enhancing diagnostic precision. For instance, modelling a penicillin molecule, which consists of merely 41 atoms, on a classical computer would require more transistors than there are atoms in the observable universe. Currently, classical methods require researchers to depend predominantly on time consuming and costly approaches for drug optimization. The energy sector also stands to benefit from quantum simulations to optimize energy storage and distribution.
Quantum computing holds the promise of significant advancements in artificial intelligence, facilitating the development of more sophisticated machine learning algorithms and AI models. Quantum computers perform computations in a manner analogous to how nature computes. Consequently, when AI systems are trained on quantum computers, it could lead toward the achievement of Artificial General Intelligence, albeit how it is defined is still up for debate, especially with the Microsoft and OpenAI partnership defining it as a system that can generate $100 billion in profits.
There has been considerable government interest in quantum computing globally. The UK has recently launched the National Quantum Computing Centre (NQCC), which aims to serve as a national hub for quantum computing research, infrastructure and talent development. One of its main objectives is to build scalable, reliable quantum computers through the advancement of quantum error correction.
The Surge in Quantum Stocks
The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in quantum computing stocks, including IonQ (+418%), Rigetti Computing (+1,917%), and D-Wave Quantum (+818%). Factors contributing to the rise in the sector included government contract wins, private sector investments and investor interest following Google's announcement of its latest quantum chip called Willow. Google’s announcement claimed that the chip could reduce errors exponentially as more qubits are used and highlighted its impressive benchmark computation in under five minutes — a task that would take some of the fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (10^25) years. There has been some criticism from the scientific community, however, pointing out that the test involved producing a random distribution with no practical use and did not account for set-up time prior to the test. Nevertheless, it demonstrates progress toward developing a large-scale computer capable of complex, error-corrected computations.
However, rationality has also gone out of the window, as shown by Quantum Corp jumping over 1,000% in the quarter, despite having no actual connection to quantum computing other than its name! Additionally, speculative retail trading has contributed to the rise in stock prices, with increased activity on the well-known Wall Street Bets subreddit.
Quantum Security
Quantum computers have the potential to change cryptography by providing unbreakable encryption methods and ensuring data security in an increasingly digital world. But how safe are today’s current encryption standards against quantum computers?
There are concerns that quantum computers could break current standards and be the biggest threat to cybersecurity. RSA is an asymmetric encryption algorithm that functions based on prime factorisation and is widely used for the majority of internet connections, transactions and signatures. By using mathematician Peter Shor’s quantum algorithm developed in 1994, we can efficiently factor large numbers and solve discrete logarithm problems which are the basis for RSA. Although Shor’s algorithm is effective, RSA has not been broken due to current hardware limitations of quantum computers, specifically the number of stable qubits required.
Regardless of whether it will be feasible in the near term, a number of players, including PQShield, have been at the forefront of contributing to quantum-resistant cryptographic standards. The US Department of Commerce’s National Institute of Standards and Technology recently finalised its principle set of encryption algorithms, following an eight-year period of submission, research and analysis. This highlights the commitment to advancing quantum security and protecting sensitive information in the post-quantum era.
Future Outlook
Despite the potential of quantum computing, several significant challenges must still be addressed. Transitioning to the era of quantum computing requires scaling up the number of stable qubits and developing robust error-correcting mechanisms to ensure reliable computation, integrating into existing infrastructure and creating quantum software. As researchers make strides in overcoming these technical obstacles, quantum computers are becoming increasingly accessible and practical for real-world applications.
At present, there is no clear consensus on which modality will win, such as superconducting or ion-based approaches, although it is likely that a multimodal approach will emerge, leveraging the unique strengths of each system alongside classical computing systems. As quantum computers become more advanced, it is expected that AI/ML (artificial intelligence/machine learning) will utilise quantum systems due to their probabilistic parallel nature. Public-private partnerships and national security initiatives are expected to play a crucial role in the advancement of quantum computing. Nonetheless, we are still several years away from achieving practical quantum computers, as underscored by NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, who recently stated: "If you kind of said 15 years for very useful quantum computers, that would probably be on the early side. If you said 30, it's probably on the late side."
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