Liontrust GF Strategic Bond Fund

The Liontrust GF Strategic Bond Fund returned 1.5%*in US dollar terms in February. The average return from the EAA Fund Global Flexible Bond (Morningstar) sector, the Fund’s reference sector, was 1.1%.

Market backdrop

February witnessed the opening act of what is going to be a long running saga of Trump’s tariffs. I’m not sure we learned very much – we already knew Trump is serious about using tariffs. What remains to be determined is to what extent tariffs are going to be used for negotiating leverage, protectionism or revenue raising. On the protectionism front, Trump is a fan of former President McKinley who served 1897-1901 and was a big proponent of tariffs. There is a genuine point that some countries over-consume and others over-produce and the backlash against this is one of the drivers of the rise in political popularism. However, Trump’s nostalgia for blue collar workers being in Midwest US states might still be a stretch too far, and the impact on the consumer (who ultimately end up effectively paying for a lot of tariffs) has not been spelled out. This saga will continue for months if not years; some tariffs will be implemented but how many remains the great unknown.

The policy uncertainty that Trump’s capriciousness creates has led to a fall in both business and consumer confidence. It is hard to formulate a business plan when one does not know what the rules and regulations are going to be. Coupled with this there was some demand pull forward towards the end of 2024 as both business and consumers sought to front run the tariffs. These factors, combined with some extreme winter weather, have led to a slowdown in US growth at the start of 2025. Headline growth will be even worse due to a surge in imports, partly gold reserves, but underlying activity rates have also decelerated. This helped to provide support to bond markets as attention shifted away from the inflationary nature of tariffs towards the growth drag caused by policy uncertainty.

In the UK the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut UK interest rates by 25bps to 4.50% in a 7-2 vote with the dissenters preferring a 50bps cut. The largest initial surprise was arch hawk Mann joining Dhingra in the dove camp, but in the statement Mann’s rationale was nuanced. Mann’s thesis seems to be to do one bigger cut now and then keep monetary policy restrictive for a long time afterwards. Mann argued that “…a more activist approach at this meeting would give a clearer signal of financial conditions appropriate for the United Kingdom” but “…monetary policy would need to remain restrictive for some time to anchor inflation expectations” and “…Bank Rate would likely stay high given structural persistence and macroeconomic volatility.”

Economic forecasts were updated in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with inflation up and growth down. One hawkish development is that a majority of the MPC members seem to be veering towards the inflation scenario where some economic slack will be required to bring consumer price inflation back down to target on a sustained basis. The issue here is that although the demand side of the equation has been revised down, so has the supply side as the UK has a chronic productivity problem, as the MPC states: “…productivity growth has been weaker than previously estimated, and the Committee judges that growth in the supply capacity of the economy has weakened.” A lower potential supply means that there is less economic slack so demand growth will need to fall more to get inflation to target. Restrictive monetary policy is not the only headwind for demand, but it is the one the MPC control. The Bank of England is having to deal with a period of very heightened uncertainty and try to balance wage inflation currently inconsistent with the inflation target and the risk that unemployment starts to accelerate. Given the various uncertainties abound, the MPC chose to insert an extra word, “careful,” into its outlook statement “…based on the Committee’s evolving view of the medium-term outlook for inflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint is appropriate.”

My central case is that the gradual pace of rate cuts will continue for the first half of 2025, meaning the next cut will be in May. After that I expect the increase in unemployment to start to outweigh the inflationary drivers in the forward forecasts, with spot inflation starting to fall and the pace of rate cuts accelerating sometime in the second half of the year. The UK desperately needs some structural growth that boosts the supply side of the economy. There are numerous routes to achieving this but it will take some bolder political decisions to be made.

Fund positioning and activity

Rates

After the rally in bond yields, we trimmed some duration at the end of the month to take the Fund to 5.9 years of exposure. We want to maintain a strategic long duration but, with plenty of volatility around, a tactical trim seemed prudent. The geographic split of duration at the end of February was 2.2 years in the US, 2.7 years in the Eurozone, and 1.0 years in the UK. As a reminder, we continue to think that yield curves will steepen further. The Fund’s net duration exposure in the 15+ year maturity bucket is zero; we prefer short-dated and medium-dated bonds.

Allocation and Selection

Credit spreads remain expensive by historic standards; the Fund retains a large capacity to buy during any correction. The exposure is 49% in investment grade and 18% in high yield (9% in bonds plus a 9% overlay), compared to neutral levels of 50% and 20% respectively. Credit fundamentals remain robust; we are just awaiting a better valuation opportunity to increase exposure.

Discrete years' performance (%) to previous quarter-end**:

**Source Financial Express, as at 28.02.25, total return, B5 share class. Discrete data is not available for ten full 12-month periods due to the launch date of the portfolio (13.04.18).*Source: Financial Express, as at 31.12.24, B5 share class.

Key Features of the Liontrust GF Strategic Bond Fund

KEY RISKS

Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of an investment and the income generated from it can fall as well as rise and is not guaranteed. You may get back less than you originally invested.

The issue of units/shares in Liontrust Funds may be subject to an initial charge, which will have an impact on the realisable value of the investment, particularly in the short term. Investments should always be considered as long term.

The fund manager considers environmental, social and governance (""ESG"") characteristics of issuers when selecting investments for the Fund. Bonds are affected by changes in interest rates and their value and the income they generate can rise or fall as a result; The creditworthiness of a bond issuer may also affect that bond's value. Bonds that produce a higher level of income usually also carry greater risk as such bond issuers may have difficulty in paying their debts. The value of a bond would be significantly affected if the issuer either refused to pay or was unable to pay. Overseas investments may carry a higher currency risk. They are valued by reference to their local currency which may move up or down when compared to the currency of the Fund. The Fund can invest in derivatives. Derivatives are used to protect against currency, credit or interest rate moves or for investment purposes. There is a risk that losses could be made on derivative positions or that the counterparties could fail to complete on transactions. The Fund uses derivative instruments that may result in higher cash levels. Cash may be deposited with several credit counterparties (e.g. international banks) or in short dated bonds. A credit risk arises should one or more of these counterparties be unable to return the deposited cash. The Fund invests in emerging markets which carries a higher risk than investment in more developed countries. This may result in higher volatility and larger drops in the value of the fund over the short term. The Fund may encounter liquidity constraints from time to time. Participation rates on advertised volumes could fall reflecting the less liquid nature of the current market conditions. Counterparty Risk: any derivative contract, including FX hedging, may be at risk if the counterparty fails.

DISCLAIMER

This is a marketing communication. Before making an investment, you should read the relevant Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document (KIID), which provide full product details including investment charges and risks. These documents can be obtained, free of charge, from www.liontrust.co.uk or direct from Liontrust. Always research your own investments. If you are not a professional investor please consult a regulated financial adviser regarding the suitability of such an investment for you and your personal circumstances.

This should not be construed as advice for investment in any product or security mentioned, an offer to buy or sell units/shares of Funds mentioned, or a solicitation to purchase securities in any company or investment product. Examples of stocks are provided for general information only to demonstrate our investment philosophy. The investment being promoted is for units in a fund, not directly in the underlying assets. It contains information and analysis that is believed to be accurate at the time of publication, but is subject to change without notice. Whilst care has been taken in compiling the content of this document, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by Liontrust as to its accuracy or completeness, including for external sources (which may have been used) which have not been verified.