In 1956, at the opening of Calder Hall, the world's first full-scale nuclear power plant, Queen Elizabeth II said: “This new power, which has proved itself to be such a terrifying weapon of destruction, is harnessed for the first time for the common good of our community." This marked the beginning of a golden age of nuclear power, which lasted from the mid-1950s to the mid-1980s. The Queen's speech reflected the optimism of the time, as governments promoted nuclear power as a clean, abundant and reliable energy source. By the late 1980s, the mood music had changed following a series of accidents that drove negative public opinion, rising costs and strict regulations – new nuclear construction projects struggled financially without heavy taxpayer subsidies. As a result, the West now has an aging fleet of power stations, some operating beyond their intended life, and the proportion of nuclear energy in the mix has stagnated and declined.
The global nuclear reactor fleet has aged:
Total global nuclear electricity generation by age of reactor
Source: World Nuclear Association, IAEA PRIS, 2023. Global Nuclear Industry Performance – World Nuclear Association
Was COP 28 the turning point for a new nuclear age?
The 2023 COP 28 climate talks in Dubai called for accelerating nuclear power deployment, with over 20 countries endorsing the goal to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. The UK aims to increase its nuclear power generation from 6GW to 24GW by 2050, while the US plans to grow from 102GW to more than 300GW over the same period. This will encourage companies to develop new technology and invest in supply chains for nuclear-grade components and materials.
Factors driving a new nuclear force?
Safety concerns and nuclear waste disposal remain critical issues, but several factors are driving the potential for a nuclear renaissance. Key amongst these are:
Energy security
In an era of heightened geopolitical tensions, nuclear power offers a stable and reliable energy source. The cost of energy in Europe spiked during the Russian invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the need for secure energy supplies. Against this backdrop, nuclear power plants can operate continuously, providing a dependable energy source.
Decarbonisation
Renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar, tend to be intermittent and not suitable to replace the stable base load requirements.
The AI revolution
The rise of AI is driving the demand for power-hungry data centres, which nuclear energy can potentially support. A Chat GPT query uses 10 times more electricity than a Google search. Microsoft recently announced a partnership with Constellation Energy to restart the infamous Three Mile Island power plant, and Alphabet and Amazon announced similar partnerships exploring small modular reactors (SMRs) that could power their data centres. Are we on the brink of a nuclear resurgence?
Technological advancements
The design of SMRs and new-generation (Gen IV) reactors come with advanced safety features, making nuclear power safer and more efficient. Significant progress is also being achieved in the recycling of spent nuclear fuel, which generally retains 90% of its energy.
Public awareness
There has been a noticeable shift in sentiment, globally, towards nuclear power, although there is still a need to better inform the public about the benefits and safety of nuclear energy.
Global leadership
China has led the world in nuclear construction, and initiatives like Sapporo 5, a strategic partnership between the US, Canada, France, Japan, and the UK, have emerged to secure supply chains for US-led technological development.
Cost
Build costs are expected to trend down as production standardisation and economies of scale across the supply chain kicks in. This will gradually address the heavy upfront capex requirement. Wood Mackenzie estimates that nuclear energy is becoming more competitive when considering costs over the plant's lifespan using Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE):
LCOE (US$/MWh): selected technologies, average values for Europe
Note: Full technology LCOE assumptions are available from Wood Mackenzie, including cost sensitivities on nuclear PWR LCOE forecasts. Source: Wood Mackenzie European Power Service, May 2023. Horizons | The nuclear option | Wood Mackenzie
Small modular reactors
SMRs are advanced nuclear reactors designed to be smaller and more flexible than traditional large-scale reactors. They typically have a power capacity of up to 300 megawatts (MW) per unit (versus 1GW for traditional reactors), are factory-assembled for reduced construction time and costs, and can be deployed incrementally to match energy demand. SMRs incorporate passive safety features, enhancing overall safety, and can be used for electricity generation, industrial applications and remote areas with limited grid capacity. Rosatom has built a SMR on board a ship operating in Russia as a floating nuclear power plant, capable of providing up to 70mw of electricity in remote areas where building more conventional plants is difficult. Many of the concepts being discussed involve micro-reactors capable of operating next to industrial or technological infrastructure sites.
While fully commercial SMRs are still mainly in the conceptual stage and not yet in production, almost 50 SMR designs have been acknowledged by the IAEA. There is ongoing development to demonstrate their commercial viability, and partnerships with the big tech companies indicates there is strong interest in this type of technology.
Companies such as Rolls-Royce in the UK and BWX Technologies in the US possess extensive expertise in this field, having constructed small nuclear reactors for the Royal Navy and the US Navy for over six decades. Both have initiated ventures to investigate commercial applications of their technology.
SMRs will ultimately require less initial capital, offer scalability and flexible location options, and promise improved safety and security. While costs are competitive compared to traditional nuclear, these have room to come down over time.
Generation IV reactors
Gen IV reactors being planned and built now are expected to start operating from the 2030s onwards. These offer several advantages over previous generations, including reduced nuclear waste, significantly higher energy yield and greater fuel flexibility. They are designed with advanced safety features, aim for sustainable energy generation and have a clear life-cycle cost advantage. Overall, they represent a significant step forward in efficiency, safety and sustainability.
This leap forward in technology has been enabled by several breakthroughs, including advanced materials that withstand higher temperatures and radiation, fast neutron reactors for enhanced fuel efficiency and reduced waste, molten salt technology for improved safety and higher operating temperatures, closed fuel cycles for recycling spent fuel and using a broader range of fuels, passive safety systems that automatically respond to reactor conditions, and high-temperature reactors capable of efficient hydrogen production.
While SMRs have the potential to provide new applications for nuclear energy, Gen IV reactors will serve as replacements for the aging base load power stations. Their advancements in safety and efficiency might help address public concerns and decrease opposition to nuclear power.
A new dawn?
Although progress has been made, the tangible benefits are still several years away. There is an increasing recognition among many Western countries of the need to support and develop nuclear supply chains. The requirement for energy security is expected to drive innovation and facilitate the transition of new concepts from the planning stage to implementation. This may signal the beginning of a prolonged period of nuclear energy expansion.
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